Ghazl El Mahallah vs Al Ittihad

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. The line landed in 3/4 Ghazl El Mahallah and 3/4 Al Ittihad completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/2 and 1/1. Ghazl lost 0-1 at Smouha, drew 1-1 with Abu Qir Semad and lost 0-1 to Zamalek. Al Ittihad lost 0-1 to Wadi Degla and won 2-0 at Al Masry. Nine of the ten supplied head-to-head games stayed below three goals, including the two 2026 meetings, 1-0 and 0-2 from Ghazl's perspective. Model total expected goals 1.98 is secondary support. Main risk: Only four recent games per side and one recent Al Ittihad away game are supplied. Al Ittihad's latest 2-1 over El Gouna and Ghazl's 1-3 loss at National Bank Egypt both broke the line; older head-to-head results and mixed competitions get limited weight. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.