Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. The line landed in 7/7 Inter and 8/8 Shakhtar Donetsk completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 4/4 and 3/3. Inter lost 3-4 to Club Brugge KV and 1-2 at Real Madrid in their two supplied Champions League matches; Shakhtar beat AEK Athens 3-1 and drew 1-1 at PSV. Both sets of continental results clear this lower total, without relying on a winner estimate. The two-match continental table is too small to justify the model making Shakhtar the away favourite. Model total expected goals 3.66 is secondary support. Main risk: Shakhtar's domestic clean sheets come against weaker opposition than Inter; three of the last four supplied meetings finished 0-0, with the other 2-0. Those meetings are from 2020-2021 and get little weight, but a controlled low-scoring game remains possible. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.