Cambridge Utd vs Wycombe

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. The line landed in 7/8 Cambridge Utd and 6/8 Wycombe completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/4 and 1/2. Both sides scored in Cambridge's 2-1 wins over Barnsley, Reading and Northampton, and 1-1 draws with Oxford Utd and AFC Wimbledon. Wycombe scored and conceded in 1-4 against Luton, 2-2 with Reading and 3-2 at Leyton Orient. The latest three supplied H2Hs were 1-1, 2-1 and 1-1. Model total expected goals 3.31 is secondary support. Main risk: Cambridge just kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 home win over Blackpool; Wycombe won 2-0 over Notts County and 1-0 at Wigan. Only two recent Wycombe away fixtures are supplied, and the model's Poisson BTTS component is lower than its headline estimate. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.