Dunfermline vs Partick Thistle

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. The line landed in 5/6 Dunfermline and 4/6 Partick Thistle completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/3 and 2/3. Dunfermline's latest score profile includes 0-0 with Livingston, 1-1 at Ayr, 1-0 at Morton and 2-0 over Queen's Park. Partick's recent results include 1-0 at Ayr and 0-0 with Raith; both season standings show low goal totals (Dunfermline 7:5 in nine, Partick 11:3 in ten). Model total expected goals 1.79 is secondary support. Main risk: Partick's preceding wins were 2-1 at Livingston and 3-0 over Arbroath; Dunfermline lost 4-1 to Aberdeen. The latest H2H was 2-1 and another 2026 meeting 2-2, so this tighter line is materially riskier than Under 3.5. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.