Schoen P. vs Gulin S.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Gulin S. took at least one set in 6/7 completed clay best-of-three matches in the last 30 days, with 6 wins. Schoen P. won 5/7 and conceded a set in 3/7. Gulin won six of seven in straight sets, including over Agamenone and Rodenas, then swept Yuzuki yesterday. Schoen lost 0-2 to Vrbensky and Alcala Gurri and needed three sets against rank-901 Rocha yesterday. No H2H is available. The low-quality winner model gives Gulin S. 58%; that is supporting context, not the probability of this set market. Main risk: Gulin is ranked 572 versus 368 and several wins were against weak opposition; Cadenasso swept him. Schoen has wins over Nedic and Misolic, and the low-quality model leaves meaningful uncertainty. The stored moneyline 1.52 (65.8% raw implied) is dated 2026-10-18T21:03:11.418901+00:00 and is neither current nor this market; odds are omitted.