Din. Minsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Din. Minsk won 4/6 completed matches in the last 45 days and 3/4 recent home matches; Arsenal Dzerzhinsk won 0/5 recent matches and 0/3 recent away matches. Din. Minsk beat Slavia Mozyr 3-1, Dnepr Mogilev 3-2 and BATE 2-0. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have no wins in their ten supplied results and lost 0-1 to Dynamo Brest and 1-5 to ML Vitebsk. Din. Minsk won the latest two H2Hs 1-0. The model home win probability 90% is secondary support. Main risk: Arsenal drew three of five recent games, including 0-0 at FC Minsk; Din. Minsk also lost 0-1 to Dynamo Brest. The 3-0 win over Uni X Labs has unverified competitive context and receives little weight. The model clamps Arsenal expected goals to 0.10 and produces an overconfident 90% home-win figure, which is heavily discounted. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.