Shi H. vs Korneeva A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Korneeva A. took at least one set in 4/4 completed hard best-of-three matches in the last 30 days, with 4 wins. Shi H. won 6/9 and conceded a set in 7/9. Korneeva swept Preston and Sawangkaew in her completed sample and beat Shi 2-0 in their July 2025 hard-court H2H. Her rank is 74 versus 217. The incomplete Joint and Frech results are excluded. The medium-quality winner model gives Korneeva A. 68%; that is supporting context, not the probability of this set market. Main risk: Korneeva has only four completed observations, her latest win was over unranked Dong, and her September match ended in retirement before her return yesterday. Shi recently beat Eala, Rakhimova and Stearns and took a set from Zheng, so fitness and opposition quality cap confidence. No verified current win-a-set price is available; odds are omitted.