Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. The line landed in 7/8 Lech Poznan and 6/6 Korona Kielce completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 4/5 and 3/3. Lech beat Slask Wroclaw 4-1 and Radomiak Radom 5-1; Korona lost 0-2 at Pogon Szczecin and won 2-1 at Slask. The five newest H2Hs all reached two goals. Model total expected goals 3.38 is secondary support. Main risk: Lech recently beat Rakow just 1-0 and Korona won 1-0 at Widzew just outside the window; Lech were shut out by stronger European opposition and played three days earlier. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.