Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 83%. The line landed in 6/6 Bayer Leverkusen and 5/6 Freiburg completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/3 and 1/2. Leverkusen won 4-3 at Mainz and 2-0 against RB Leipzig; Freiburg beat Schalke 2-1 and drew 2-2 at Eintracht Frankfurt. Every supplied H2H reached two goals, although older meetings are downweighted. Model total expected goals 3.76 is secondary support. Main risk: Freiburg won only 1-0 at Paderborn and both sides played three days earlier; a controlled 1-0 remains possible despite the high scoring model. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.