Jablonec vs Plzen

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. The line landed in 6/7 Jablonec and 6/7 Plzen completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/3 and 4/4. Jablonec beat Brno and Dukla Prague 1-0 and drew 1-1 with Zlin; Plzen won 3-0 against Mlada Boleslav and drew 0-0 at Hradec Kralove. Every recent Jablonec home and Plzen away sample stayed below four. Model total expected goals 2.53 is secondary support. Main risk: four of the five newest H2Hs broke this line, including 5-0 and 3-3; Jablonec just lost 2-3 at Freiburg, so the estimate is deliberately well below the recent venue hit rate. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.