Brighton vs Crystal Palace

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Brighton scored at least twice in 5/6 completed matches in the last 45 days and 2/3 recent home matches in the same 45-day window. Crystal Palace conceded at least twice in 4/8 recent matches and 2/3 recent away matches in the same 45-day window. Brighton scored two at Sunderland, three against Arsenal and three at Manchester Utd; Crystal Palace conceded three at Lyon and three against Ipswich. Brighton's 2.73 expected-goal model estimate supports the team-total choice. The model expected goals for Brighton is 2.73, as secondary support only. Main risk: Brighton failed to score in the two latest H2Hs and scored only once against Leeds; Palace held Leeds 0-0, and the recent 4-0 Kauno Zalgiris win is less comparable. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.