Ostrava vs Sparta Prague

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Sparta Prague scored at least twice in 6/8 completed matches in the last 45 days and 3/4 recent away matches in the same 45-day window. Ostrava conceded at least twice in 4/7 recent matches and 1/1 recent home matches in the same 45-day window. Sparta scored three at Sigma Olomouc and four at Ararat-Armenia, with recent 2-0 wins over Pardubice and Jablonec. Ostrava conceded two to Pardubice, three at Jablonec and four at Mlada Boleslav; the two latest H2Hs were 5-2 and 3-0 to Sparta. The model expected goals for Sparta Prague is 2.40, as secondary support only. Main risk: Sparta were held 1-1 by Lillestrom and scored once in a loss at Hradec Kralove; Ostrava have just one recent home result and older home H2Hs included 1-1 and a 3-2 win. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.