Wolfsberger AC vs Tirol

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. The line landed in 5/5 Wolfsberger AC and 5/6 Tirol completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/2 and 3/4. Wolfsberger AC lost 0-3 at Altach, 1-4 at Ried and 0-3 to SK Rapid. Tirol lost 1-2 to Ried and 0-3 at SK Rapid, so the case does not depend only on their 6-0 Regensburg or 4-0 Leithaprodersdorf results. Model total expected goals 3.19 is secondary support. Main risk: three of the four newest H2Hs stayed below three goals, Tirol won 1-0 at Liefering, and the model gives only 65% Over 2.5; those contrary signals temper the much higher recent hit rate. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.