Hapoel Jerusalem vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 83%. Since September 1, Hapoel Jerusalem won 8/10 decisive completed games with average margin +10.4, versus Hapoel Beer Sheva's 2/5 and -6.8. Supporting wins: 85-84 at San Pablo Burgos on 14.10.26; 92-69 at Hapoel Holon on 11.10.26. Opponent latest results: 82-95 against Hapoel Tel Aviv on 11.10.26; 67-85 at Hapoel Tel Aviv on 26.09.26. Relevant venue records: Hapoel Jerusalem 3/3 at home, Hapoel Beer Sheva 1/3 at away. Latest available H2H: 18.09.26 Hapoel Jerusalem 83-69 Hapoel Beer Sheva; 20.05.26 Hapoel Jerusalem 103-87 Hapoel Beer Sheva. The form-based model gives 89% for this winner; its uncalibrated early-season and mixed-opposition inputs are discounted. Main risk: Jerusalem played a tight 85-84 European away game on October 14, while Beer Sheva are better rested and won a December H2H. The model's 89% is reduced for recovery and opposition differences. No current exact price or offered total/handicap line is verified; odds are omitted and projected totals are not treated as market lines. Selection is the home participant, Hapoel Jerusalem.