Safiullin R. vs Ivashka I.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Safiullin R. took at least one set in 8/10 completed hard best-of-three matches in the last 30 days, with 7 wins. Ivashka I. won 2/3 and conceded a set in 1/3. Safiullin swept Cobolli, Hijikata and Mochizuki and took a set against Rublev in defeat; his only straight-set losses were to Medvedev and Cerundolo. The medium-quality winner model gives Safiullin R. 59%; that is supporting context, not the probability of this set market. Main risk: Ivashka took a set in all three completed matches, including a 1-2 loss to Draxl, and won the 2023 hard-court H2H 2-0. Safiullin last completed a match eight days ago; Ivashka sample is small and his 0-0 retirement entry is excluded. No verified current win-a-set price is available; odds are omitted.