Fearnley J. vs Nardi L.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Fearnley J. took at least one set in 4/4 completed hard best-of-three matches in the last 30 days, with 4 wins. Nardi L. won 3/4 and conceded a set in 2/4. Fearnley has four completed straight-set hard-court wins, including Kumstat and Mrva this week, and won their June grass H2H 2-1. The high-quality winner model gives Fearnley J. 72%; that is supporting context, not the probability of this set market. Main risk: Nardi has three current wins including a 2-0 win over Mmoh. Both comparable samples contain only four matches, much of Fearnley opposition is outside the top 190, and the H2H was on another surface. The stored moneyline 1.3 (76.9% raw implied) is dated 2026-10-16T19:47:48.388630+00:00 and is neither current nor this market; odds are omitted.