Passaro F. vs Dodig M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Dodig M. took at least one set in 8/8 completed clay best-of-three matches in the last 30 days, with 8 wins. Passaro F. won 8/9 and conceded a set in 4/9. Dodig has eight consecutive completed clay wins, including straight-set wins over Martinez and Boyer plus a 2-1 win over Neumayer. The medium-quality winner model gives Dodig M. 60%; that is supporting context, not the probability of this set market. Main risk: Passaro has taken a set in all nine, won eight, and just beat Trungelliti. Passaro won their 2025 clay H2H 2-1, while Dodig won a later hard-court meeting; both have heavy recent workloads and no outcome is assured. No verified current win-a-set price is available; odds are omitted.