Kelty Hearts vs Forfar Athletic

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. The line landed in 9/9 Kelty Hearts and 9/10 Forfar Athletic completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 4/4 and 4/4. Kelty Hearts lost consecutive 2-1 games at East Kilbride and Stirling; Forfar Athletic lost 2-1 to Ross County, Elgin City and Dumbarton. Model total expected goals 3.53 is secondary support. Main risk: August H2H ended 1-0 and Forfar beat Annan 1-0; reserve and lower-tier opponents inflate scoring in parts of the sample, so the larger total is avoided. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.