Hibernian vs Falkirk

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. The line landed in 5/6 Hibernian and 5/5 Falkirk completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/3 and 2/2. Hibernian lost 1-0 at Dundee Utd and drew 1-1 with Aberdeen; Falkirk drew 1-1 in both recent away games at St Johnstone and Dundee Utd. Model total expected goals 2.26 is secondary support. Main risk: The two latest H2Hs ended 1-3 and 4-1, and Hibernian conceded three at home to Hearts; these adverse direct meetings reduce confidence despite the recent low totals. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.