Stenhousemuir vs Raith

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. The line landed in 6/6 Stenhousemuir and 5/6 Raith completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/3 and 3/3. Stenhousemuir recorded four recent 1-0 wins, including home games against Arbroath and Partick Thistle; Raith drew 0-0 at Partick and won 0-2 at Inverness. August H2H was 1-1. Model total expected goals 1.93 is secondary support. Main risk: Raith beat Arbroath 4-0 and Stenhousemuir conceded three to Hearts; a red card or early goal could undo a low-scoring pattern, and older H2Hs are not weighted heavily. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.