Espanyol vs Atl. Madrid

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. The line landed in 5/5 Espanyol and 7/7 Atl. Madrid completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/2 and 4/4. Espanyol drew 1-1 at Malaga and conceded three against Elche; Atl. Madrid scored twice at Alaves and three at Real Sociedad. The latest three H2Hs all had at least two goals. Model total expected goals 3.09 is secondary support. Main risk: Atl. Madrid have kept recent clean sheets and could control a narrow game; European turnaround and only two recent Espanyol home matches make the recent perfect hit rate less reliable. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.