Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Levski have won both opening league games, are unbeaten in their last six in all competitions, and have won four of the last five head-to-heads against Septemvri including 7-0 and 5-0; the model rates the home win at 79% (high quality) and market odds of 1.19 imply 84%. Main risk: Levski played a midweek European qualifier (2-2 away to Univ. Craiova), so rotation and fatigue are possible.