Guangxi Hengchen vs Changchun Yatai

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 83%. The line landed in 6/6 Guangxi Hengchen and 6/6 Changchun Yatai completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/3 and 3/3. Guangxi drew 1-1 with Shenzhen Juniors after three successive 1-0 scorelines; Changchun drew 1-1 with Dalian K'un City and Yanbian Longding. June H2H ended 1-2. Model total expected goals 2.33 is secondary support. Main risk: Changchun have conceded 42 goals across 26 league games, much less controlled than this recent sample; one H2H and six recent results per side cannot establish a stable long-run ceiling. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.