Apollon vs Nea Salamis

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. The line landed in 4/5 Apollon and 6/6 Nea Salamis completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/2 and 4/4. Apollon beat Krasava 3-1 and drew 2-2 with APOEL; Nea Salamis lost 2-1 away to APOEL, AEK Larnaca and AEL Limassol. August H2H ended 3-1. Model total expected goals 3.76 is secondary support. Main risk: Apollon drew 0-0 at Omonia and the preceding two H2Hs were 1-1 and 1-0; only two recent Apollon home games are available and competition labels for form are incomplete. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.