Ceara vs Juventude

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. The line landed in 7/8 Ceara and 7/9 Juventude completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/3 and 5/5. Ceara recorded three successive one-goal games against Botafogo SP, Criciuma and Avai; Juventude won 0-2 at Ponte Preta and 0-1 at America MG. The latest three H2Hs stayed below four goals. Model total expected goals 2.23 is secondary support. Main risk: Juventude just drew 2-2 with Sao Bernardo and Ceara drew 2-2 at Operario-PR; those recent four-goal outcomes prevent treating the perfect venue sample as certain. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.