Panathinaikos vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Panathinaikos won nine of ten completed games since September and the latest six, including 92-74 over Fenerbahce, 90-67 over Maccabi and 72-55 away to Partizan. They are 7/8 at home in that sample. Hapoel Tel Aviv are 7/10 and 3/5 away, with away defeats 82-93 at Valencia and 83-101 at Maccabi. Main risk: Hapoel won their latest two, recently beat Real Madrid 102-98, and won the latest H2H 92-88 in April; the home H2H was 93-82 for Panathinaikos. Strong opposing form reduces the model 80%. The stored 1.28 home price implies 78.1% but was scraped on 14 October and is not verified current, so odds are omitted.