Machac T. vs Draxl L.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Draxl took a set in all 8 completed hard-court matches in the last 30 days, including straight-set wins over Duckworth (rank 64) and Gaston (89). Machac conceded a set in 5/7, with sweeps by Bublik, Molcan and Gea. Main risk: Machac has the better rank 75 versus 219, just swept Vukic and Muller, and the low-quality model favours him; Draxl needed three sets against Ivashka and Jasika and has a busy recent schedule. No H2H is available; the estimate concerns one set.