Termez Surkhon vs Xorazm Urganch

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. The line landed in 4/4 Termez Surkhon and 3/5 Xorazm Urganch completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 1/1 and 2/3. Termez scored only three goals in four recent games, with 0-0 at Qizilqum and 1-0 wins over Kokand and Bunyodkor; Xorazm had a 0-0 with Sogdiana and a 0-1 at OKMK. Their July H2H was 1-0. Model total expected goals 2.12 is secondary support. Main risk: Xorazm latest results were 2-2 at Neftchi and 1-3 against Qizilqum, and three of the latest five H2Hs had four or more goals, although those high totals date from August 2025 or earlier. There is only one recent Termez home result and the recent samples are small. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.