Ayr vs Partick Thistle

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. The line landed in 5/6 Ayr and 5/5 Partick Thistle completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/3 and 2/2. Partick conceded only three league goals in nine matches and their recent results include 1-0 against Ayr and 0-0 with Raith. All five latest H2Hs stayed below four goals, reinforcing both sides low recent scoring. Model total expected goals 1.92 is secondary support. Main risk: Ayr lost 1-3 at home to Inverness and Partick have just won 3-0 and 2-1; an early defensive error could open the game. The recent away sample is only two. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.