Sumqayit vs Araz

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. The line landed in 4/4 Sumqayit and 4/4 Araz completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/2 and 2/2. Araz conceded at least twice in all four recent games, including 1-2 at Shamakhi and 2-3 at Qarabag; Sumqayit scored in all four, including 4-1 against Gabala and two 1-1 draws. The lower total avoids relying on a home win after several draws. Model total expected goals 3.39 is secondary support. Main risk: Araz failed to score in their latest 0-2 loss and two of the latest five H2Hs had at most one goal. Each recent sample contains only four games and the 4-1 Sumqayit result inflates the attacking average. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.