St. Liege vs Dender

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. The line landed in 4/5 St. Liege and 4/5 Dender completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/3 and 1/2. St. Liege recent home games finished 0-1 against Charleroi, 0-2 against Lens and 1-0 against Antwerp; Dender kept clean sheets in all five recent matches. Four of the latest five H2Hs had at most two goals. Model total expected goals 2.75 is secondary support. Main risk: Dender won 6-0 at lower-tier Hoogstraten and St. Liege lost 2-4 at Westerlo; the December cup H2H was 3-2. Opponent quality and cup rotation make the clean-sheet sample less transferable. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.