Widzew Lodz vs Wisla

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. The line landed in 4/6 Widzew Lodz and 7/7 Wisla completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/4 and 5/5. Wisla recent away totals included 0-2 at Legia, 4-3 at Piast and 1-1 at Korona; Widzew latest four games all reached two goals, including consecutive home 2-2 draws. The lower total avoids relying on the model away win at exactly 65%. Model total expected goals 3.14 is secondary support. Main risk: Widzew had earlier home results of 0-0 and 0-1, Wisla scoring is inflated by a 4-0 cup mismatch and 4-3 friendly, and recent H2H evidence is unavailable after 2024. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.