Lausanne Ouchy vs Etoile-Carouge

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Lausanne Ouchy scored at least twice in 5/7 completed matches in the last 45 days and 3/3 recent home matches in the same 45-day window. Etoile-Carouge conceded at least twice in 3/5 recent matches and 2/2 recent away matches in the same 45-day window. Lausanne Ouchy scored three against Rapperswil-Jona, four against Wil and four against Sion; their three recent home games all produced at least three home goals. Etoile-Carouge conceded four at Kriens and three in this same matchup on September 1. The model home expected goals 2.36 is secondary support. Main risk: Lausanne Ouchy had recent 0-0 draws at Grenoble and Yverdon, and Etoile-Carouge held them to 1-1 in April and won 1-0 here in February. Only two recent away games support the opponent-concession sample, and cup rotation is unverified. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.