Rudes vs Rijeka

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. The line landed in 5/5 Rudes and 4/6 Rijeka completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/2 and 2/3. Rudes conceded at least twice in four of five recent games, including 2-2 with Slaven Belupo and 0-4 against Hajduk; Rijeka latest away match was a 1-4 loss to Slaven Belupo. The August H2H finished 2-1. Model total expected goals 3.88 is secondary support. Main risk: Rijeka also drew 1-1 at Lok. Zagreb and lost a friendly 0-1 to Union Berlin; their 6-0 cup win against Vrbovec inflates scoring, and the Rudes home sample is only two. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.