Real Madrid vs Lyon-Villeurbanne

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Real Madrid won seven of ten completed games since September, including their latest four, and all three at home: 89-87 over Unicaja, 86-76 over Partizan and 120-83 over Manresa. Their latest result was 98-89 at Olimpia Milano. Lyon-Villeurbanne are 5/10, with three wins and three losses away; their latest European away game ended 79-102 at Panathinaikos. Real won nine of ten listed H2Hs, including the latest three. Main risk: Lyon recently won at Paris and held Crvena Zvezda to a two-point loss, while Real conceded 102 and 107 in two recent away games. Short rest, only three current Real home samples and older H2Hs reduce the model 77%; no verified current odds are available.