Donnet E. vs Martineau M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Martineau took a set in 7/8 completed hard-court matches in the last 30 days, including wins over Schoolkate (rank 155) and Schoenhaus (293). Donnet conceded a set in 5/9 and most of his wins came against ranks 618 to 1678. Rank 272 versus 817 and Martineau's 2025 hard-court H2H sweep support the set direction. Main risk: Donnet just swept Mpetshi Perricard (108), won eight of nine, and the match model quality is low; Martineau was swept by Gojo and the H2H is a year old.