Koevermans A. vs Boskovic L.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. Boskovic took a set in 5/6 completed hard-court matches in the last 30 days, most recently straight-set wins over Selekhmeteva (rank 100) and Jacquemot (158). Koevermans conceded a set in 4/6. Boskovic also won their February hard-court H2H 2-0. Main risk: the high-quality match model and rank 249 versus 334 favour Koevermans, who has won her last three; Boskovic was swept by Lemaitre (471). This is a cautious one-set estimate, not a winner call.