Caen vs La Roche

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. The line landed in 5/5 Caen and 4/5 La Roche completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/2 and 1/2. Caen scored twice in four of five recent games, including 3-2 with Rouen and 2-0 with Paris 13 Atl.; La Roche latest three wins finished 3-1, 2-1 and 3-2. The lower total avoids choosing between inconsistent Caen and unbeaten La Roche. Model total expected goals 2.49 is secondary support. Main risk: La Roche drew 0-0 in one of just two recent away games and had 1-0 away wins in August; both sides last played 12 days ago and there is no H2H, so the estimate is reduced despite strong overall recent hit rates. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.