Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. The line landed in 5/6 Bournemouth and 5/6 Sturm Graz completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/3 and 3/3. Bournemouth scored twice at Real Sociedad and Newcastle and drew 2-2 with Brentford; Sturm Graz scored twice at Austria Vienna and conceded three at Salzburg. The lower total has clearer evidence than either match winner. Model total expected goals 3.02 is secondary support. Main risk: Bournemouth lost 0-1 at home to Liverpool and Sturm Graz European opener was 0-0 against Rennes; the 4-0 Lincoln and 4-1 ASK Voitsberg cup results inflate scoring and no H2H is available. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.