Celta Vigo vs Juventus

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. The line landed in 5/6 Celta Vigo and 4/6 Juventus completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 1/2 and 1/2. Celta drew 0-0 at Elche and Real Sociedad and 1-1 against Malaga and Getafe; Juventus latest results were 1-1 at Cagliari and 0-1 against Cremonese. This supports the under more than the marginal model away-win call. Model total expected goals 2.44 is secondary support. Main risk: Celta beat Racing Santander 5-0 and Juventus had a 5-0 against Nijmegen and a 2-3 at Sassuolo; only half of the four recent venue matches stayed under, and the 2000 H2Hs are obsolete. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.