Royale Union SG vs Real Sociedad

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. The line landed in 6/6 Royale Union SG and 5/7 Real Sociedad completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/2 and 2/2. Union scored multiple goals against Antwerp, Plzen, Lommel SK, Charleroi and St. Truiden; both recent Sociedad away games finished 3-2. This lower total is preferable to accepting the aggressive 83% model home-win estimate. Model total expected goals 3.26 is secondary support. Main risk: Union kept four clean sheets in six recent games and just drew 1-1 with Leuven; Sociedad had recent 0-1 and 0-0 results, the venue samples are only two each, and no H2H is available. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.