Andijan vs Qizilqum

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. The line landed in 5/5 Andijan and 2/4 Qizilqum completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/3 and 1/2. Andijan conceded at least twice in four of five recent games, including 2-2 with Olimpik-Mobiuz and 1-4 with Nasaf Qarshi at home. The latest three H2Hs had two or three goals, consistent with the lower total. Model total expected goals 2.69 is secondary support. Main risk: Qizilqum most recently drew 0-0 with Termez Surkhon and lost 0-1 at Din. Samarkand; only four recent Qizilqum results and two away games are available, so higher totals are not justified. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.