Flora vs Levadia

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. The line landed in 6/6 Flora and 6/7 Levadia completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/3 and 2/2. Flora conceded in all six recent games, including 3-2 home wins over Parnu JK Vaprus and Tammeka; Levadia lead the league with 82 goals in 30 matches. The last three H2Hs all reached three or more goals, secondary to current form. Model total expected goals 3.91 is secondary support. Main risk: Levadia kept six clean sheets in seven recent games, most recently winning only 1-0 against Paide; their 10-0 cup win inflates averages and the two recent away totals were both exactly two. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.