Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. The line landed in 6/7 Lech Poznan and 3/5 Bayer Leverkusen completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/4 and 2/2. Lech recently won 4-1 at Slask Wroclaw and lost 0-4 at Crystal Palace; Leverkusen away drew 2-2 at Augsburg and won 4-3 at Mainz. The 81% model over estimate supports but overstates confidence. Model total expected goals 4.10 is secondary support. Main risk: Leverkusen had consecutive 2-0 wins over RB Leipzig and Celje, Lech beat Rakow only 1-0, and large domestic/friendly scores inflate averages; no H2H is available. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.