Nevezis vs Gargzdai

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. Gargzdai won five of six completed games since September, including all of the latest five and both away games: 105-102 at Rytas and 102-82 at Taurage. Nevezis lost all six current games and both at home. Gargzdai won the latest four listed H2Hs, including 90-85 here in April. Main risk: Nevezis held Zalgiris to 76-80 last time, Gargzdai lost 77-98 to the same opponent, and two recent Gargzdai wins were only 3-4 points. Small away samples, cup context and missing verified odds temper the model 71%.