Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Levski are unbeaten in the listed last 10 (7 wins, 3 draws), average 2.8 goals scored and 0.6 allowed, opened the league 2-0, and won 7 of the last 10 H2Hs; the model gives 79%, while 1.19 was 84% raw implied and 77% after normalization. Main risk: Septemvri won 5 of their listed last 10, and the supplied odds were timestamped July 30, so no price was published.