Iwate vs Earthfriends Tokyo Z

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. Iwate won five of seven completed games since September and three of four at home, including 80-75 over Koshigaya and wins by 11 and 12 over Yamagata. Earthfriends Tokyo Z are 3/6, scored only 53 in each of their latest two losses, and split their only current away pair at Tokyo United BC. Main risk: Iwate lost the preceding Koshigaya meeting 77-90 and their Sendai visit 74-99; repeated opponents limit effective sample size. The listed H2Hs are from 2014-16 and are too stale to support the pick, so the model 85% is reduced substantially. No verified current price is available.