Jovic I. vs Yastremska D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. Jovic took a set in 6/7 completed hard-court matches in the last 30 days, including straight-set wins over Stearns (rank 37), Bucsa (38), Frech (56) and Rakhimova (69). Rank 11 versus 103 and the high-quality model support Jovic, with the broader set market preferred to a short-priced winner assumption. Main risk: Yastremska has won 3/4 current matches, including Chwalinska and Bucsa, while Jovic lost her latest match 0-2 to Swiatek. There is no H2H and the Yastremska sample is only four.