Medvedev D. vs Tsitsipas S.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Medvedev has won all 9 completed hard-court BO3 matches in the last 30 days, including straight-set wins over Cerundolo (rank 20) and Rublev (23). Tsitsipas has also taken a set in all 7 current matches, so a Medvedev set is preferred to the narrower match-winner call. His rank 5 and the medium-quality model support the direction. Main risk: Tsitsipas just beat Fritz and Darderi and won their February 2026 hard-court H2H 2-0; that matchup result prevents treating the unbeaten sample as certainty.