Paide vs Tammeka

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. The line landed in 6/7 Paide and 9/9 Tammeka completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/3 and 5/5. Paide beat Tammeka 2-0 in September and all three recent home games had at least two goals. Tammeka conceded six at Levadia but also scored three at Kuressaare and two at Harju JK Laagri. Model total expected goals 3.38 is secondary support. Main risk: Paide lost 0-1 at Levadia most recently and the May H2H was 0-1; Tammeka cup and heavy-loss outliers inflate goal averages. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.